New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
MLB · Friday, August 14, 2026 · 7:16 PM
The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 57.9%
Books consensus 57.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -155 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -150 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -157 | +130 |
| ESPN BET | -150 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -148 | +126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -145 | +135 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 59.2% | 42.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| Markets average | 58.3% | 41.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
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