Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

All New York Yankees predictions · All Toronto Blue Jays predictions

MLB · Friday, August 14, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 1-3

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 58.1%
Books consensus 58.1%
Result Toronto Blue Jays won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays
BetMGM -155 +125
BetRivers -148 +128
DraftKings -147 +137
ESPN BET -142 +126
Fanatics -155 +130
FanDuel -144 +134
Hard Rock Bet -145 +135
Caesars -145 +135

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 58.1% 41.9%
Best book price incl. vig 58.7% 42.2%
Kalshi contract price 57.5% 42.5%
Polymarket contract price 57.5% 42.5%
Markets average 57.5% 42.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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