Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Texas Rangers at Athletics

All Texas Rangers predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Friday, August 14, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 3-8

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 51.0%
Books consensus 51.0%
Result Athletics won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Texas RangersAthletics
BetMGM -115 -105
BetRivers -110 -103
DraftKings -111 +103
ESPN BET -111 -102
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -106 -102
Hard Rock Bet -105 -105
Caesars -111 +101

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Texas RangersAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.0% 49.0%
Best book price incl. vig 51.2% 49.3%
Kalshi contract price 50.5% 49.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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