Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

All New York Yankees predictions · All Toronto Blue Jays predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 15, 2026 · 3:08 PM · Final: 1-4

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 63.4%
Books consensus 63.4%
Result Toronto Blue Jays won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays
BetMGM -200 +165
BetRivers -182 +160
DraftKings -186 +173
ESPN BET -185 +162
Fanatics -195 +160
FanDuel -180 +168
Hard Rock Bet -180 +170
Caesars -190 +170

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 63.4% 36.6%
Best book price incl. vig 64.3% 36.6%
Kalshi contract price 63.5% 36.5%
Polymarket contract price 62.5% 37.5%
Markets average 63.0% 37.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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