New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
MLB · Saturday, August 15, 2026 · 3:08 PM
The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 61.1%
Books consensus 61.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -175 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -175 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -165 | +153 |
| ESPN BET | -169 | +149 |
| Fanatics | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -172 | +158 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -165 | +155 |
| Caesars | -161 | +151 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 61.7% | 38.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Markets average | 61.5% | 38.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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