Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians

All San Diego Padres predictions · All Cleveland Guardians predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 15, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 1-6

The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Result Cleveland Guardians won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Diego PadresCleveland Guardians
BetMGM -105 -115
BetRivers +104 -118
DraftKings -101 -106
ESPN BET -102 -111
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel -102 -106
Hard Rock Bet +100 -110
Caesars +103 -113

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Diego PadresCleveland Guardians
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.9% 51.1%
Best book price incl. vig 49.0% 51.5%
Kalshi contract price 48.5% 51.5%
Polymarket contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Markets average 48.0% 52.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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