New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
MLB · Sunday, August 16, 2026 · 1:38 PM
The model's call
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +100 | -120 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +100 | -118 |
| Caesars | +105 | -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.8% | 53.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Markets average | 48.7% | 51.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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