Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds
All Miami Marlins predictions · All Cincinnati Reds predictions
MLB · Sunday, August 16, 2026 · 1:41 PM · Final: 7-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -124 | +108 |
| DraftKings | -118 | +110 |
| ESPN BET | -120 | +107 |
| Fanatics | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -120 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -120 | +110 |
| Caesars | -121 | +110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 54.1% | 47.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Markets average | 53.2% | 46.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.