San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Cleveland Guardians predictions
MLB · Sunday, August 16, 2026 · 4:51 PM · Final: 5-0
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| BetRivers | -110 | -104 |
| DraftKings | -105 | -103 |
| ESPN BET | -111 | -102 |
| Fanatics | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -110 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -110 | +100 |
| Caesars | -111 | +101 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 51.2% | 49.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Markets average | 52.5% | 47.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.