Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates

All Detroit Tigers predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions

MLB · Monday, August 17, 2026 · 7:06 PM · Final: 8-5

The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 50.6%
Books consensus 50.6%
Result Detroit Tigers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit TigersPittsburgh Pirates
BetMGM -115 -105
BetRivers -113 -103
DraftKings -105 -103
ESPN BET -105 -105
Fanatics -110 -110
FanDuel -108 +100
Hard Rock Bet -105 -105
Caesars -110 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit TigersPittsburgh Pirates
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 50.6% 49.4%
Best book price incl. vig 51.2% 50.0%
Kalshi contract price 49.5% 50.5%
Polymarket contract price 49.5% 50.5%
Markets average 49.5% 50.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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