Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Kansas City Royals

All Athletics predictions · All Kansas City Royals predictions

MLB · Monday, August 17, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 5-9

The model's call
Kansas City Royals to win
Model confidence 62.8%
Books consensus 62.8%
Result Kansas City Royals won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book AthleticsKansas City Royals
BetMGM +155 -190
BetRivers +160 -182
DraftKings +165 -177
ESPN BET +162 -185
Fanatics +155 -190
FanDuel +166 -180
Hard Rock Bet +165 -175
Caesars +165 -180

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue AthleticsKansas City Royals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.2% 62.8%
Best book price incl. vig 37.6% 63.6%
Kalshi contract price 36.5% 63.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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