Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox

All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions · All Boston Red Sox predictions

MLB · Monday, August 17, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 1-11

The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 55.8%
Books consensus 55.8%
Result Boston Red Sox won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Arizona DiamondbacksBoston Red Sox
BetMGM +115 -140
BetRivers +123 -139
DraftKings +125 -134
ESPN BET +121 -136
Fanatics +115 -140
FanDuel +120 -130
Hard Rock Bet +125 -135
Caesars +117 -127

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Arizona DiamondbacksBoston Red Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 44.2% 55.8%
Best book price incl. vig 44.4% 55.9%
Kalshi contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Polymarket contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Markets average 44.5% 55.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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