Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds

All St. Louis Cardinals predictions · All Cincinnati Reds predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 18, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 3-0

The model's call
St. Louis Cardinals to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result St. Louis Cardinals won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds
BetMGM -120 +100
BetRivers -125 +106
DraftKings -115 +107
ESPN BET -115 +102
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -112 +104
Hard Rock Bet -115 +105
Caesars -115 +105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.2% 47.8%
Best book price incl. vig 52.8% 48.3%
Kalshi contract price 52.5% 47.5%
Polymarket contract price 52.5% 47.5%
Markets average 52.5% 47.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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