San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians
MLB · Tuesday, August 18, 2026 · 6:41 PM
The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 61.6%
Books consensus 61.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | San Francisco Giants | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +149 | -181 |
| ESPN BET | +150 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +158 | -188 |
| Caesars | +157 | -172 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | San Francisco Giants | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 38.4% | 61.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 38.8% | 63.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 39.0% | 61.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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