Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

All Toronto Blue Jays predictions · All Tampa Bay Rays predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 18, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 10-5

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 55.4%
Books consensus 55.4%
Result Toronto Blue Jays won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays
BetMGM +115 -135
BetRivers +117 -134
DraftKings +120 -129
ESPN BET +121 -136
Fanatics +115 -140
FanDuel +118 -126
Hard Rock Bet +120 -130
Caesars +117 -127

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 44.6% 55.4%
Best book price incl. vig 45.2% 55.8%
Kalshi contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Polymarket contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Markets average 44.5% 55.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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