Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
MLB · Tuesday, August 18, 2026 · 6:41 PM
The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 68.9%
Books consensus 68.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +209 | -259 |
| ESPN BET | +210 | -250 |
| Fanatics | +180 | -220 |
| FanDuel | +198 | -240 |
| Caesars | +215 | -245 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 31.1% | 68.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 31.7% | 68.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| Polymarket contract price | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| Markets average | 32.2% | 67.9% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
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