Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers

All Washington Nationals predictions · All Texas Rangers predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 18, 2026 · 8:06 PM · Final: 0-5

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 56.9%
Books consensus 56.9%
Result Texas Rangers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington NationalsTexas Rangers
BetMGM +118 -145
BetRivers +132 -150
DraftKings +131 -140
ESPN BET +126 -142
Fanatics +120 -145
FanDuel +126 -138
Hard Rock Bet +130 -140
Caesars +125 -135

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington NationalsTexas Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.1% 56.9%
Best book price incl. vig 43.1% 57.4%
Kalshi contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Polymarket contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Markets average 42.5% 57.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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