Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All Houston Astros predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 18, 2026 · 8:11 PM · Final: 3-1

The model's call
Houston Astros to win
Model confidence 60.5%
Books consensus 60.5%
Result Los Angeles Angels won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +145 -165
DraftKings +152 -163
ESPN BET +145 -170
Fanatics +140 -170
FanDuel +148 -160
Hard Rock Bet +150 -160
Caesars +147 -157

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.5% 60.5%
Best book price incl. vig 39.7% 61.1%
Kalshi contract price 39.5% 60.5%
Polymarket contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Markets average 39.0% 61.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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