Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Kansas City Royals

All Athletics predictions · All Kansas City Royals predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 18, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 3-4

The model's call
Kansas City Royals to win
Model confidence 59.8%
Books consensus 59.8%
Result Kansas City Royals won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book AthleticsKansas City Royals
BetMGM +140 -170
BetRivers +140 -159
DraftKings +147 -158
ESPN BET +143 -162
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +144 -156
Hard Rock Bet +145 -155
Caesars +145 -155

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue AthleticsKansas City Royals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.2% 59.8%
Best book price incl. vig 40.5% 60.8%
Kalshi contract price 39.5% 60.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record