Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

All Toronto Blue Jays predictions · All Tampa Bay Rays predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 19, 2026 · 6:40 PM · Final: 6-7

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 65.1%
Books consensus 65.1%
Result Tampa Bay Rays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays
BetMGM +170 -210
BetRivers +180 -205
DraftKings +179 -193
ESPN BET +177 -203
Fanatics +170 -205
FanDuel +182 -198
Hard Rock Bet +185 -195
Caesars +183 -203

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 34.9% 65.1%
Best book price incl. vig 35.1% 65.9%
Kalshi contract price 35.5% 64.5%
Polymarket contract price 35.5% 64.5%
Markets average 35.5% 64.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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