Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals
MLB · Saturday, July 4, 2026 · 8:11 PM · Final: 6-1
The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 58.7%
Books consensus 58.7%
Result Philadelphia Phillies won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -165 | +132 |
| DraftKings | -156 | +129 |
| ESPN BET | -155 | +135 |
| Fanatics | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -156 | +132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -160 | +130 |
| Caesars | -165 | +140 |
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