Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All Houston Astros predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 19, 2026 · 8:10 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Houston Astros to win
Model confidence 57.9%
Books consensus 57.9%
Result Houston Astros won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros
BetMGM +125 -155
BetRivers +135 -155
DraftKings +132 -142
ESPN BET +137 -155
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +134 -144
Hard Rock Bet +135 -145
Caesars +132 -142

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.1% 57.9%
Best book price incl. vig 42.2% 58.7%
Kalshi contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Polymarket contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Markets average 41.5% 58.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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