Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers

All Washington Nationals predictions · All Texas Rangers predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 19, 2026 · 8:06 PM · Final: 6-0

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 53.3%
Books consensus 53.3%
Result Washington Nationals won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington NationalsTexas Rangers
BetMGM +105 -125
BetRivers +110 -124
DraftKings +108 -116
ESPN BET +107 -125
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +110 -120
Hard Rock Bet +110 -120
Caesars +103 -113

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington NationalsTexas Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.7% 53.3%
Best book price incl. vig 47.6% 53.1%
Kalshi contract price 46.0% 54.0%
Polymarket contract price 46.5% 53.5%
Markets average 46.3% 53.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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