Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Kansas City Royals

All Athletics predictions · All Kansas City Royals predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 19, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 7-9

The model's call
Kansas City Royals to win
Model confidence 63.1%
Books consensus 63.1%
Result Kansas City Royals won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book AthleticsKansas City Royals
BetMGM +155 -190
BetRivers +155 -182
DraftKings +168 -181
ESPN BET +165 -189
Fanatics +160 -195
FanDuel +162 -174
Hard Rock Bet +170 -180
Caesars +165 -180

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue AthleticsKansas City Royals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.9% 63.1%
Best book price incl. vig 37.0% 63.5%
Kalshi contract price 36.1% 63.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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