Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds

All St. Louis Cardinals predictions · All Cincinnati Reds predictions

MLB · Thursday, August 20, 2026 · 12:41 PM · Final: 10-9

The model's call
St. Louis Cardinals to win
Model confidence 51.0%
Books consensus 51.0%
Result St. Louis Cardinals won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds
BetMGM -110 -110
BetRivers -112 -103
DraftKings -107 +100
ESPN BET -114 +104
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -108 +100
Hard Rock Bet -110 +100
Caesars -113 +103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.0% 48.9%
Best book price incl. vig 51.7% 49.0%
Kalshi contract price 51.5% 48.5%
Polymarket contract price 50.5% 49.5%
Markets average 51.0% 49.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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