Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All Houston Astros predictions

MLB · Thursday, August 20, 2026 · 8:11 PM · Final: 18-3

The model's call
Houston Astros to win
Model confidence 63.1%
Books consensus 63.1%
Result Los Angeles Angels won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros
BetMGM +155 -190
BetRivers +163 -190
DraftKings +168 -181
ESPN BET +162 -185
Fanatics +155 -190
FanDuel +166 -180
Hard Rock Bet +170 -180
Caesars +165 -180

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.9% 63.1%
Best book price incl. vig 37.0% 64.3%
Kalshi contract price 36.5% 63.5%
Polymarket contract price 36.5% 63.5%
Markets average 36.5% 63.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record