Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Kansas City Royals

All Athletics predictions · All Kansas City Royals predictions

MLB · Thursday, August 20, 2026 · 2:11 PM · Final: 2-6

The model's call
Kansas City Royals to win
Model confidence 54.8%
Books consensus 54.8%
Result Kansas City Royals won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book AthleticsKansas City Royals
BetMGM +110 -135
BetRivers +118 -136
DraftKings +116 -124
ESPN BET +116 -131
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +118 -126
Hard Rock Bet +120 -130
Caesars +115 -125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue AthleticsKansas City Royals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 45.2% 54.8%
Best book price incl. vig 45.5% 55.4%
Kalshi contract price 45.5% 54.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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