Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers

All Washington Nationals predictions · All Texas Rangers predictions

MLB · Thursday, August 20, 2026 · 8:08 PM · Final: 0-2

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 62.8%
Books consensus 62.8%
Result Texas Rangers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington NationalsTexas Rangers
BetMGM +155 -190
BetRivers +165 -200
DraftKings +168 -181
ESPN BET +162 -185
Fanatics +155 -190
FanDuel +166 -180
Hard Rock Bet +160 -170
Caesars +160 -175

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington NationalsTexas Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.2% 62.8%
Best book price incl. vig 37.3% 63.0%
Kalshi contract price 37.5% 62.5%
Polymarket contract price 37.5% 62.5%
Markets average 37.5% 62.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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