Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies

All Cleveland Guardians predictions · All Colorado Rockies predictions

MLB · Friday, August 21, 2026 · 8:41 PM · Final: 9-1

The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 58.1%
Books consensus 58.1%
Result Cleveland Guardians won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies
BetMGM -150 +125
BetRivers -159 +138
DraftKings -150 +140
ESPN BET -148 +131
Fanatics -150 +125
FanDuel -144 +134
Hard Rock Bet -145 +135
Caesars -145 +135

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 58.1% 41.9%
Best book price incl. vig 59.0% 41.7%
Kalshi contract price 58.5% 41.5%
Polymarket contract price 58.5% 41.5%
Markets average 58.5% 41.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record