Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

All Toronto Blue Jays predictions · All New York Yankees predictions

MLB · Friday, August 21, 2026 · 7:06 PM · Final: 1-3

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 64.6%
Books consensus 64.6%
Result New York Yankees won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees
BetMGM +165 -200
BetRivers +175 -200
DraftKings +179 -193
ESPN BET +177 -203
Fanatics +165 -200
FanDuel +176 -190
Hard Rock Bet +180 -190
Caesars +175 -195

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 35.4% 64.6%
Best book price incl. vig 35.7% 65.5%
Kalshi contract price 35.5% 64.5%
Polymarket contract price 35.5% 64.5%
Markets average 35.5% 64.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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