Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox

All San Francisco Giants predictions · All Boston Red Sox predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 65.6%
Books consensus 65.6%
Result Boston Red Sox won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Francisco GiantsBoston Red Sox
BetMGM +170 -210
BetRivers +180 -210
DraftKings +189 -204
ESPN BET +181 -207
Fanatics +175 -215
FanDuel +186 -205
Hard Rock Bet +190 -200
Caesars +190 -210

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Francisco GiantsBoston Red Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 34.4% 65.6%
Best book price incl. vig 34.5% 66.7%
Kalshi contract price 33.5% 66.5%
Polymarket contract price 33.5% 66.5%
Markets average 33.5% 66.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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