Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies

All Cleveland Guardians predictions · All Colorado Rockies predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 8:11 PM · Final: 4-3

The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 55.7%
Books consensus 55.7%
Result Cleveland Guardians won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies
BetMGM -140 +115
BetRivers -141 +125
DraftKings -129 +120
ESPN BET -136 +121
Fanatics -140 +115
FanDuel -132 +122
Hard Rock Bet -135 +125
Caesars -130 +120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 55.7% 44.3%
Best book price incl. vig 56.3% 44.4%
Kalshi contract price 56.5% 43.5%
Polymarket contract price 56.5% 43.5%
Markets average 56.5% 43.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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