Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies

All Cleveland Guardians predictions · All Colorado Rockies predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 23, 2026 · 3:11 PM · Final: 7-2

The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 60.1%
Books consensus 60.1%
Result Cleveland Guardians won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies
BetMGM -165 +140
BetRivers -167 +145
DraftKings -158 +147
ESPN BET -162 +143
Fanatics -165 +135
FanDuel -158 +146
Hard Rock Bet -155 +145
Caesars -157 +147

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 60.1% 39.9%
Best book price incl. vig 60.8% 40.5%
Kalshi contract price 60.5% 39.5%
Polymarket contract price 60.5% 39.5%
Markets average 60.5% 39.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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