Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies
MLB · Sunday, August 23, 2026 · 3:11 PM
The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 60.0%
Books consensus 60.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Cleveland Guardians | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -175 | +144 |
| ESPN BET | -165 | +140 |
| Fanatics | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -164 | +138 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -155 | +145 |
| Caesars | -160 | +150 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Cleveland Guardians | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 60.8% | 40.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Markets average | 60.5% | 39.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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