St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
MLB · Sunday, August 23, 2026 · 1:35 PM
The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 63.9%
Books consensus 63.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | St. Louis Cardinals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +163 | -199 |
| Fanatics | +165 | -200 |
| Caesars | +170 | -190 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | St. Louis Cardinals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 37.0% | 65.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| Markets average | 33.5% | 66.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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