Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers

All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 23, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 0-4

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 72.0%
Books consensus 72.0%
Result Los Angeles Dodgers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Pittsburgh PiratesLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +240 -300
BetRivers +260 -315
DraftKings +253 -275
ESPN BET +230 -280
Fanatics +230 -285
FanDuel +250 -280
Hard Rock Bet +260 -275
Caesars +245 -285

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Pittsburgh PiratesLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 28.0% 72.0%
Best book price incl. vig 27.8% 73.3%
Kalshi contract price 28.5% 71.5%
Polymarket contract price 28.5% 71.5%
Markets average 28.5% 71.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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