Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB · Sunday, August 23, 2026 · 4:11 PM
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 71.5%
Books consensus 71.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | +240 | -290 |
| Fanatics | +210 | -255 |
| FanDuel | +235 | -290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +250 | -260 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 28.6% | 71.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| Markets average | 28.5% | 71.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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