San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox
MLB · Sunday, August 23, 2026 · 3:11 PM
The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 66.1%
Books consensus 66.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | San Francisco Giants | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fanatics | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +184 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +200 | -210 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | San Francisco Giants | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 33.3% | 67.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| Markets average | 33.0% | 67.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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