Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels

All Cleveland Guardians predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Monday, August 24, 2026 · 9:39 PM · Final: 4-2

The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 60.4%
Books consensus 60.4%
Result Cleveland Guardians won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Cleveland GuardiansLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -170 +140
BetRivers -152 +128
DraftKings -161 +150
ESPN BET -162 +143
Fanatics -170 +140
FanDuel -164 +150
Hard Rock Bet -160 +150
Caesars -163 +153

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Cleveland GuardiansLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 60.4% 39.6%
Best book price incl. vig 60.3% 39.5%
Kalshi contract price 60.5% 39.5%
Polymarket contract price 60.5% 39.5%
Markets average 60.5% 39.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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