Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks

All Chicago Cubs predictions · All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions

MLB · Monday, August 24, 2026 · 9:42 PM · Final: 7-0

The model's call
Chicago Cubs to win
Model confidence 57.0%
Books consensus 57.0%
Result Chicago Cubs won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago CubsArizona Diamondbacks
BetMGM -155 +125
BetRivers -143 +125
DraftKings -140 +130
ESPN BET -142 +126
Fanatics -145 +120
FanDuel -138 +126
Hard Rock Bet -140 +130
Caesars -138 +128

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago CubsArizona Diamondbacks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 57.0% 43.0%
Best book price incl. vig 58.0% 43.5%
Kalshi contract price 56.5% 43.5%
Polymarket contract price 56.5% 43.5%
Markets average 56.5% 43.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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