Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Twins at Athletics

All Minnesota Twins predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Monday, August 24, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 9-6

The model's call
Minnesota Twins to win
Model confidence 57.4%
Books consensus 57.4%
Result Minnesota Twins won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Minnesota TwinsAthletics
BetMGM -150 +125
BetRivers -143 +125
DraftKings -140 +131
ESPN BET -142 +126
Fanatics -150 +125
FanDuel -140 +130
Hard Rock Bet -140 +130
Caesars -141 +131

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Minnesota TwinsAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 57.4% 42.6%
Best book price incl. vig 58.3% 43.3%
Kalshi contract price 57.9% 42.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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