Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants

All Cincinnati Reds predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions

MLB · Monday, August 24, 2026 · 9:45 PM · Final: 0-5

The model's call
Cincinnati Reds to win
Model confidence 61.9%
Books consensus 61.9%
Result San Francisco Giants won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Cincinnati RedsSan Francisco Giants
BetMGM -185 +150
BetRivers -175 +150
DraftKings -170 +158
ESPN BET -177 +155
Fanatics -175 +145
FanDuel -172 +160
Hard Rock Bet -170 +160
Caesars -175 +160

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Cincinnati RedsSan Francisco Giants
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 61.9% 38.1%
Best book price incl. vig 63.0% 38.5%
Kalshi contract price 61.5% 38.5%
Polymarket contract price 61.5% 38.5%
Markets average 61.5% 38.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record