Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets

All Milwaukee Brewers predictions · All New York Mets predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 25, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 60.2%
Books consensus 60.2%
Result New York Mets won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Milwaukee BrewersNew York Mets
BetMGM -170 +140
BetRivers -157 +135
DraftKings -159 +148
ESPN BET -169 +149
Fanatics -165 +135
FanDuel -158 +146
Hard Rock Bet -160 +150
Caesars -157 +147

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Milwaukee BrewersNew York Mets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 60.2% 39.8%
Best book price incl. vig 61.1% 40.0%
Kalshi contract price 60.5% 39.5%
Polymarket contract price 60.5% 39.5%
Markets average 60.5% 39.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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