Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
All Cincinnati Reds predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions
MLB · Friday, August 28, 2026 · 2:21 PM · Final: 10-8
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +170 | -210 |
| BetRivers | +165 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +179 | -193 |
| ESPN BET | +177 | -203 |
| Fanatics | +165 | -200 |
| FanDuel | +176 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +180 | -190 |
| Caesars | +175 | -195 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Reds | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -130 | −1.5 +105 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -137 | −1.5 +112 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +103 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -128 | −1.5 +106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -120 | −1.5 +110 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -120 | −1.5 +100 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -121 | 8.5 +100 |
| DraftKings | 9 +101 | 9 -122 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -122 | 8.5 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 35.7% | 65.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Markets average | 35.5% | 64.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.