Houston Astros at New York Mets
All Houston Astros predictions · All New York Mets predictions
MLB · Friday, August 28, 2026 · 7:12 PM · Final: 3-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Houston Astros | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | -108 | -106 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -105 |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -105 |
| Fanatics | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -106 | -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -105 |
| Caesars | -105 | -105 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -175 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -195 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +149 | +1.5 -181 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -180 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +138 | +1.5 -166 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -165 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -178 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -118 | 7.5 -102 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -117 | 7.5 -104 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -114 | 7.5 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -122 | 7.5 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Houston Astros | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 50.5% | 50.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Markets average | 50.8% | 49.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.