Houston Astros at New York Mets
MLB · Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 4:11 PM
The model's call
New York Mets to win
Model confidence 55.9%
Books consensus 55.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Houston Astros | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | +115 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +122 | -144 |
| Caesars | +115 | -125 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Houston Astros | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.0% | 55.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Markets average | 45.8% | 54.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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