Baltimore Orioles at Athletics
MLB · Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 10:06 PM
The model's call
Baltimore Orioles to win
Model confidence 57.5%
Books consensus 57.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Baltimore Orioles | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -150 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -150 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -148 | +122 |
| ESPN BET | -145 | +125 |
| Fanatics | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -142 | +120 |
| Caesars | -141 | +131 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Baltimore Orioles | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 58.5% | 43.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 57.5% | 42.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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