Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Baltimore Orioles at Athletics

All Baltimore Orioles predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 10:06 PM · Final: 5-3

The model's call
Baltimore Orioles to win
Model confidence 57.3%
Books consensus 57.3%
Result Baltimore Orioles won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Baltimore OriolesAthletics
BetMGM -155 +125
BetRivers -143 +125
DraftKings -142 +132
ESPN BET -142 +126
Fanatics -150 +125
FanDuel -140 +130
Hard Rock Bet -140 +130
Caesars -138 +128

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Orioles −1.5
priced 46.6% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
Baltimore Orioles covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 10
priced 48.9% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 9.5
Under 10 (8 scored)
Spread by book OriolesAthletics
BetMGM −1.5 +105 +1.5 -125
BetRivers −1 -118 +1 -103
DraftKings −1.5 +101 +1.5 -122
ESPN BET −1.5 +110 +1.5 -130
Fanatics −1.5 +105 +1.5 -125
FanDuel −1.5 +108 +1.5 -130
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +110 +1.5 -120
Caesars −1.5 +110 +1.5 -130
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 10 -105 10 -115
BetRivers 10 -103 10 -117
DraftKings 10 -104 10 -115
ESPN BET 9.5 -120 9.5 +100
Fanatics 10 -105 10 -115
FanDuel 9.5 -120 9.5 -102
Hard Rock Bet 9.5 -115 9.5 +105
Caesars 10 -115 10 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Baltimore OriolesAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 57.3% 42.7%
Best book price incl. vig 58.0% 43.1%
Kalshi contract price 57.5% 42.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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