Houston Astros at New York Mets
All Houston Astros predictions · All New York Mets predictions
MLB · Sunday, August 30, 2026 · 3:11 PM · Final: 6-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Houston Astros | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 |
| BetRivers | +107 | -121 |
| DraftKings | +114 | -123 |
| ESPN BET | +107 | -120 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +110 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -120 |
| Caesars | +110 | -121 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +163 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -193 | −1.5 +158 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -194 | −1.5 +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +170 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +152 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| BetRivers | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| DraftKings | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -135 | 8.5 +115 |
| Fanatics | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| FanDuel | 9 -112 | 9 -108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +115 |
| Caesars | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Houston Astros | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 46.7% | 54.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.