Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox
MLB · Monday, August 31, 2026 · 6:46 PM
The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 60.0%
Books consensus 60.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Seattle Mariners | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +137 | -167 |
| ESPN BET | +140 | -165 |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +140 | -166 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +145 | -155 |
| Caesars | +147 | -157 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Seattle Mariners | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.5% | 60.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| Polymarket contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Markets average | 40.2% | 59.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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