New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays
All New York Mets predictions · All Tampa Bay Rays predictions
MLB · Tuesday, September 1, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 2-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Mets | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| BetRivers | +114 | -136 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| ESPN BET | +116 | -131 |
| Fanatics | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +116 | -136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +115 | -140 |
| Caesars | +120 | -130 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +155 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -194 | −1.5 +159 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -182 | −1.5 +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +155 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +152 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | 8 -110 | 8 -130 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -104 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -122 | 7.5 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Mets | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.5% | 56.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Markets average | 43.5% | 56.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.