Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox
All Seattle Mariners predictions · All Boston Red Sox predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 2, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 8-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Seattle Mariners | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +130 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| ESPN BET | +128 | -145 |
| Fanatics | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +126 | -148 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -150 |
| Caesars | +125 | -135 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Mariners | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +145 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +140 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -172 | −1.5 +142 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -178 | −1.5 +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +145 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +143 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -107 | 8.5 -113 |
| DraftKings | 8 -119 | 8 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -102 | 8.5 -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Seattle Mariners | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 43.5% | 57.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Markets average | 42.5% | 57.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.