New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays
All New York Mets predictions · All Tampa Bay Rays predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 2, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 10-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Mets | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +150 | -182 |
| DraftKings | +157 | -191 |
| ESPN BET | +162 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +155 | -185 |
| Caesars | +168 | -183 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +110 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -139 | −1.5 +115 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -136 | −1.5 +113 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +120 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +110 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -140 | −1.5 +116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +115 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -130 | −1.5 +110 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8 -124 | 8 -115 |
| DraftKings | 8 -112 | 8 -108 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +110 | 8.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8 -114 | 8 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Mets | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 37.3% | 64.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Markets average | 37.5% | 62.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.