Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
All Boston Red Sox predictions · All Baltimore Orioles predictions
MLB · Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 7:06 PM · Final: 5-0
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -139 | +117 |
| DraftKings | -126 | +105 |
| ESPN BET | -128 | +113 |
| Fanatics | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -130 | +115 |
| Caesars | -121 | +110 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Red Sox | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -165 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +120 | +1.5 -148 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +134 | +1.5 -163 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -160 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -160 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -156 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -160 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -160 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8 -112 | 8 -129 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -118 | 7.5 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -112 | 7.5 -108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 54.8% | 46.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Markets average | 53.8% | 46.3% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.