Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Seattle Mariners

MLB · Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 9:41 PM

The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 68.6%
Books consensus 68.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book AthleticsSeattle Mariners
BetMGM +200 -250
BetRivers +210 -250
DraftKings +202 -250
ESPN BET +218 -252
Fanatics +200 -245
FanDuel +200 -245
Hard Rock Bet +210 -260
Caesars +215 -245

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue AthleticsSeattle Mariners
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 31.4% 68.6%
Best book price incl. vig 31.4% 71.0%
Kalshi contract price 31.5% 68.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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